Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.63book 1.47
No39%
ours 2.58book 2.53
All matches
—
Chelsea — Bournemouth, Premier League
England, Premier League
Chelsea
2.8LDLWWBournemouth
2.5LWDDDOutcome probability
362836
Chelsea36%Draw28%Bournemouth36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Chelsea2.791.79-20.1
XDraw3.514.26+5.0
2Bournemouth2.804.52+13.6
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricChelseaBournemouthCombined
Goals scored1.831.333.16
Conceded2.331.503.83
Corners11.29.510.3
Cards2.22.85.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ChelseaBournemouth
Chelsea FC 36%, AFC Bournemouth 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Chelsea FC 36%Draw 28%AFC Bournemouth 36%
1st half
34 · 38 · 28
2nd half
32 · 35 · 33
Bookmakers: 1.79 · 4.26 · 4.52
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 5.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Chelsea
- awayBrentford0:3
- homeHull City2:2
- awayArsenal1:2
- homeBrighton4:3
- awayFulham3:2
Bournemouth
- homeLiverpool0:1
- awayReal Sociedad2:1
- homeBrentford2:2
- awayNewcastle United2:2
- homeEverton1:1
Head to head
- 12/30/25Premier League2:2
- 12/06/25Premier League0:0
- 01/14/25Premier League2:2
- 09/14/24Premier League1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Hull City52216:48
Hull City52216:489
Newcastle United52219:98
Newcastle United52219:9810Chelsea521210:127
Chelsea521210:12711
Ipswich Town52037:116
Ipswich Town52037:11612
Manchester United51228:85
Manchester United51228:8513
Nottingham Forest51224:55
Nottingham Forest51224:5514
Sunderland51136:104
Sunderland51136:10415
Crystal Palace51136:114
Crystal Palace51136:11416
Aston Villa51134:94
Aston Villa51134:9417Bournemouth50326:83
Bournemouth50326:8318
Coventry City51041:103
Coventry City51041:10319
Fulham50235:82
Fulham50235:82Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.