SK Rapid Wien — TSV Hartberg, Bundesliga

Austria, BundesligaOctober 16 at 05:30 PM

SK Rapid Wien

2.5WWLWD

—

TSV Hartberg

1.9DDWWL

Outcome probability

542521

SK Rapid Wien54%Draw25%TSV Hartberg21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SK Rapid Wien54%1.85—

XDraw25%4.07—

2TSV Hartberg21%4.67—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97

No49%

ours 2.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSK Rapid WienTSV HartbergCombined

Goals scored2.001.673.67

Conceded1.331.673.00

Corners10.612.211.4

Cards2.82.04.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SK Rapid WienTSV Hartberg
1Table position6
58.20%Possession42.40%
5.1Days of rest5.2
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SK Rapid Wien: a home win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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