All matches

TSV Hartberg — SC Austria Lustenau, Bundesliga

Austria, Bundesliga

TSV Hartberg
1.9DDWWL
—
SC Austria Lustenau
1.8WLLDW
Outcome probability
462727
TSV Hartberg46%Draw27%SC Austria Lustenau27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1TSV Hartberg46%2.19—
XDraw27%3.72—
2SC Austria Lustenau27%3.64—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.04

No51%

ours 1.96

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTSV HartbergSC Austria LustenauCombined
Goals scored1.671.172.84
Conceded2.001.673.67
Corners12.213.212.7
Cards1.82.34.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    TSV HartbergSC Austria Lustenau
    6Table position8
    43.20%Possession42.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    TSV Hartberg look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

TSV Hartberg

  • homeLASK Linz3:3
  • awayWSG Swarovski Wattens2:2
  • homeSV Ried3:2
  • awaySC Rheindorf Altach2:1
  • homeFK Austria Wien0:2

SC Austria Lustenau

  • homeSC Rheindorf Altach2:0
  • awayFK Austria Wien1:2
  • homeWSG Swarovski Wattens0:4
  • awaySK Sturm Graz1:1
  • homeWolfsberger Athletik Club2:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4SK Sturm Graz73228:911
5SV Ried722311:128
6TSV Hartberg722310:138
7WSG Swarovski Wattens72239:128
8SC Austria Lustenau72238:118
9Liebherr Grazer AK72236:168
10FK Austria Wien72147:137

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.