Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.87book 1.88
No46%
ours 2.15book 1.79
All matches
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Sardarapat — Noah, Premier League
Armenia, Premier League
Sardarapat
1.9DDLLW
Noah
3.6WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
13%79%
SardarapatMarket 10.208%DrawMarket 5.4513%NoahMarket 1.2179%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sardarapat12.3210.20-1.7
XDraw7.765.45-5.5
2Noah1.271.21-3.8
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1031 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1030 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1023 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SardarapatNoah
Sardarapat 8%, FC Noah 79%. The safest is “FC Noah or draw” at 91%.
Sardarapat 8%Draw 13%FC Noah 79%
1st half
24 · 36 · 40
2nd half
9 · 21 · 71
Bookmakers: 10.20 · 5.45 · 1.21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 9.5
70%2.12
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSardarapatNoahCombined
Goals scored1.332.333.66
Conceded1.670.332.00
Corners13.27.510.3
Cards1.21.32.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
Sardarapat
- awayBKMA1:1
- homeAlashkert1:1
- homePyunik2:4
- awayShirak0:2
- homeSyunik3:1
Noah
- homeVan2:0
- awayUrartu3:0
- homeGandzasar Kapan3:2
- homeArarat Yerevan4:0
- awayBKMA1:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Noah880021:524
Noah880021:5242
Ararat-Armenia962118:920
Ararat-Armenia962118:9203
Pyunik853018:818
Pyunik853018:8184
Alashkert944119:716
Alashkert944119:7165Sardarapat833214:1212
Sardarapat833214:12126
Urartu832312:1011
Urartu832312:10117
Shirak831411:1010
Shirak831411:1010Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.