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Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia: result 0:1

Bulgaria, First LeagueMatch finished

Final score 0:1. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Lokomotiv Sofia 40%, Spartak Varna 34%, draw 25%.

0:1HT 0:0
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
34%25%40%
Spartak VarnaPrice 2.5934%DrawPrice 3.3825%Lokomotiv SofiaPrice 2.4740%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.44xG1.20
57Possession, %43
13Shots12
3Shots on target1
3Corners6
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0
7Fouls18
0Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 76 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    Lokomotiv Sofia40%
  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.558%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 42%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    Yes61%

    Actual: No — we had 39%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Spartak Varna34%36%2.902.59-1.2
XDraw25%27%3.963.38-1.5
2Lokomotiv Sofia40%38%2.482.47+2.7

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Spartak Varna

  • awayCSKA 19481:6
  • awayDunav Ruse0:2
  • awayBotev Vratsa1:0
  • homeLokomotiv Sofia0:1
  • awaySlavia Sofia0:0

Lokomotiv Sofia

  • homeBotev Plovdiv2:5
  • homeBotev Vratsa1:1
  • homeLokomotiv Plovdiv1:1
  • awaySpartak Varna1:0
  • homeCSKA Sofia0:2

Head to head

  • 09/20/26First League0:1
  • 05/22/26First League3:0
  • 02/13/26First League2:2
  • 08/22/25First League0:0
  • 03/28/25First League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Arda1253416:1818
7Slavia Sofia132749:913
8Spartak Varna1334612:2313
9Dunav Ruse1332815:2211
10Botev Vratsa1224610:2110
11Cherno More1223713:229
12Lokomotiv Sofia1316615:259
13Lokomotiv Plovdiv132386:179
14Septemvri Sofia1222810:238

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.