All matches

Marseille — Toulouse, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Marseille
2.3LLLLL
—
Toulouse
1.8WDLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
54%23%23%
Marseille54%Draw23%Toulouse23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Marseille54%1.87—
XDraw23%4.27—
2Toulouse23%4.34—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.63

No39%

ours 2.58

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMarseilleToulouseCombined
Goals scored0.170.831.00
Conceded0.330.831.16
Corners10.09.39.7
Cards3.01.34.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MarseilleToulouse

Olympique de Marseille 54%, Toulouse FC 23%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Olympique de Marseille 54%Draw 23%Toulouse FC 23%
1st half
41 · 38 · 22
2nd half
39 · 35 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Marseille

  • homePSG1:2
  • awayBesiktas1:4
  • awayRennes0:1
  • homeParis FC2:3
  • awayMonaco0:2

Toulouse

  • homeLe Havre3:2
  • awayLorient2:2
  • homeLille0:1
  • awayBrest2:2
  • homeLyon0:2

Head to head

  • 03/07/26Ligue 11:0
  • 11/29/25Ligue 12:2
  • 04/06/25Ligue 13:2
  • 08/31/24Ligue 13:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Brest51227:85
12Lorient51225:65
13Toulouse51227:95
14Nice51223:65
15Lens51139:94
16Troyes51134:114
17Marseille51047:83
18Le Havre50234:72

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.