All matches

Strasbourg — Auxerre, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Strasbourg
2.6LDWWL
—
Auxerre
1.5WWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
55%23%22%
Strasbourg55%Draw23%Auxerre22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Strasbourg55%1.82—
XDraw23%4.27—
2Auxerre22%4.59—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricStrasbourgAuxerreCombined
Goals scored1.330.672.00
Conceded0.830.671.50
Corners7.712.09.8
Cards1.31.32.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

StrasbourgAuxerre

RC Strasbourg Alsace 55%, Association Jeunesse Auxerroise 22%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

RC Strasbourg Alsace 55%Draw 23%Association Jeunesse Auxerroise 22%
1st half
37 · 38 · 25
2nd half
38 · 37 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Strasbourg

  • awayParis FC1:2
  • homeMonaco1:1
  • awayTroyes6:2
  • homeLens2:1
  • awayMarseille0:4

Auxerre

  • homeBrest2:1
  • homeNice1:0
  • awayLyon1:3
  • homeAngers1:3
  • awayLens2:5

Head to head

  • 03/07/26Ligue 10:0
  • 10/29/25Ligue 13:0
  • 03/02/25Ligue 11:0
  • 01/05/25Ligue 13:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6PSG52218:78
7Angers52126:57
8Strasbourg521210:107
9Le Mans51319:96
10Auxerre52037:126
11Brest51227:85
12Lorient51225:65

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.