All matches

KRC Genk — Royal Standard de Liège, Pro League

Belgium, Pro League

KRC Genk
2.8LDDWD
—
Royal Standard de Liège
1.9LLWWW
Outcome probability
512722
KRC Genk51%Draw27%Royal Standard de Liège22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1KRC Genk51%1.95—
XDraw27%3.73—
2Royal Standard de Liège22%4.56—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.08

No52%

ours 1.92

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKRC GenkRoyal Standard de LiègeCombined
Goals scored1.501.332.83
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners10.010.210.1
Cards1.40.82.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    KRC GenkRoyal Standard de Liège
    9Table position7
    50.00%Possession54.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour KRC Genk: a home win is rated at 51%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

KRC Genk

  • awayClub Brugge KV0:3
  • homeKAA Gent1:1
  • awayRSC Anderlecht0:0
  • homeWaasland-Beveren4:0
  • awayRoyal Antwerp FC4:4

Royal Standard de Liège

  • awayKAA Gent1:2
  • awayKVC Westerlo2:4
  • homeRoyal Antwerp FC1:0
  • awayOud-Heverlee Leuven2:1
  • homeRAAL La Louvière2:0

Head to head

  • 05/16/26Pro League0:0
  • 04/25/26Pro League1:1
  • 02/22/26Pro League0:3
  • 08/10/25Pro League1:2
  • 02/14/25Pro League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5RSC Anderlecht74127:513
6SV Zulte-Waregem732210:711
7Royal Standard de Liège732213:1211
8KVC Westerlo731315:1610
9KRC Genk723213:129
10Waasland-Beveren73047:119
11Sint-Truidense VV722312:128

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.