KRC Genk — KV Kortrijk, Pro League

Belgium, Pro LeagueOctober 10 at 06:45 PM

KRC Genk

2.8LDDWD

—

KV Kortrijk

1.2WLLLL

Outcome probability

7118

KRC Genk71%Draw18%KV Kortrijk10%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1KRC Genk71%1.40—

XDraw18%5.47—

2KV Kortrijk10%9.75—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.31

No57%

ours 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKRC GenkKV KortrijkCombined

Goals scored2.000.332.33

Conceded1.672.003.67

Corners10.39.29.8

Cards1.72.03.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
KRC GenkKV Kortrijk
9Table position18
50.20%Possession50.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
KRC Genk look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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