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Holstein Kiel 1:1 Osnabruck, 2. Bundesliga: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Germany, 2. BundesligaMatch finished

Holstein Kiel
1.7LWDLD
1:1HT 1:0
Osnabruck
1.7LWLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
54%22%24%
Holstein KielPrice 1.7754%DrawPrice 3.9822%OsnabruckPrice 3.9424%
Line-upsHolstein Kiel4-1-4-1—Osnabruck3-4-2-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Holstein Kiel4-1-4-1Osnabruck3-4-2-1

Holstein Kiel4-1-4-1

Coach: T. Walter

Starting XI

  • 1GKGermanyT. Weiner
  • 32DFJapanH. Sekine
  • 5DFDenmarkN. Madsen
  • 26DFSloveniaD. Zec
  • 40DFGermanyLeon Parduzi
  • 28MFGermanyJ. Meffert
  • 20MFSlovakiaA. Kaprálik
  • 8MFArgentinaG. Balzi
  • 15MFDenmarkK. Davidsen
  • 11MFNetherlandsG. de Regt
  • 19FWGermanyP. Harres

Substitutes

  • 9FWGeorgiaG. Kvilitaia
  • 13DFCroatiaI. Nekić
  • 44MFGermanyMark Richter Monserrat
  • 41GKLio Rothenhagen
  • 7FWGermanyS. Skrzybski
  • 30MFT. Tasdelen
  • 47DFUSAJ. Tolkin
  • 27MFI. Ugoh
  • 43MFT. Wiese

Osnabruck3-4-2-1

Coach: T. Schultz

Starting XI

  • 32GKGermanyJ. Krumrey
  • 27DFGermanyR. Fabinski
  • 24DFGermanyJ. Müller
  • 25DFGermanyN. Wiemann
  • 31MFGermanyP. Kammerbauer
  • 26MFGermanyF. Wagner
  • 15MFDenmarkB. Jacobsen
  • 42MFUSAJ. Gómez
  • 21MFGermanyA. Beck
  • 22MFB. Riesselmann
  • 11FWGermanyR. Meißner

Substitutes

  • 17FWGermanyL. Raimund
  • 19MFGermanyL. Opitz
  • 8MFGermanyL. Münst
  • 23FWFranceT. Lesueur
  • 7MFGhanaD. Kyereh
  • 20DFGermanyT. Janotta
  • 28DFGermanyK. Faber
  • 4DFIsraelJ. Abu Hanna
  • 1GKGermanyN. Sauter

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.81xG1.42
58Possession, %42
18Shots14
4Shots on target3
10Corners1
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0
11Fouls15
1Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 85 of 98void — 2
  • Match result Missed
    Holstein Kiel54%

    Actual: Draw — we had 22%

  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.563%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 37%

  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes62%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Holstein Kiel54%54%1.851.77-0.1
XDraw22%23%4.513.98-0.6
2Osnabruck24%23%4.223.94+0.7

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Holstein Kiel

  • awayGreuther Furth0:1
  • homeDynamo Dresden3:0
  • homeHertha Berlin0:0
  • awayEintracht Braunschweig0:1
  • homeOsnabruck1:1

Osnabruck

  • awayWolfsburg0:2
  • homeGreuther Furth3:0
  • awayArminia Bielefeld1:2
  • homeDynamo Dresden1:1
  • awayHolstein Kiel1:1

Head to head

  • 09/19/262. Bundesliga1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8St. Pauli1026212:1212
9Greuther Furth1033413:1612
10Osnabruck1032514:1711
11VfL Bochum103258:1111
12Hannover 961032510:1611
13Karlsruher SC1032513:2111
14Energie Cottbus1024418:2010
15Eintracht Braunschweig1031616:1810
16Darmstadt 98102359:199
17Holstein Kiel1015410:128
18Dynamo Dresden1022612:208

More matches in this competition

Germany, 2. Bundesliga: upcoming and recently played.

All competition matches →

Upcoming

Eintracht Braunschweig–Energie Cottbus492328Dynamo Dresden–Greuther Furth522324Holstein Kiel–Arminia Bielefeld392634Nurnberg–Darmstadt 98582121Osnabruck–Kaiserslautern362538

Played

Hannover 962:1Dynamo Dresden492526✓St. Pauli1:3Nurnberg442629×Greuther Furth1:0Holstein Kiel382537✓

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.