Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.94
No49%
ours 2.06
All matches
Fortaleza CEIF — Independiente Medellin, Primera A
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%29%33%
Fortaleza CEIF38%Draw29%Independiente Medellin33%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fortaleza CEIF2.65—
XDraw3.43—
2Independiente Medellin3.02—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Fortaleza CEIFIndependiente Medellin
Fortaleza CEIF FC 38%, Deportivo Independiente Medellín 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 71%.
Fortaleza CEIF FC 38%Draw 29%Deportivo Independiente Medellín 33%
1st half
34 · 42 · 24
2nd half
30 · 37 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total offsides: Under 4.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFortaleza CEIFIndependiente MedellinCombined
Goals scored0.800.801.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Fortaleza CEIF- Winless in 12 matches1:2, 1:1, 1:2, 1:1, 0:0
- Winless at home in 6 matches1:1, 1:1, 2:2, 1:4, 1:2
- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 7.6 per match20 teams in the league
Independiente Medellin- 3 defeats in a row1:3, 1:2, 0:2, 2:1, 0:1
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches9 goals conceded
- 3 draws in the last 5 head-to-head meetings1:0, 3:1, 0:0, 2:2, 2:2
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Fortaleza CEIF
- awayAmerica de Cali1:2
- homeDeportivo Cali1:1
- awayInter Bogotá1:2
- homeMillonarios1:1
- awayPasto0:0
Independiente Medellin
- awayInter Bogotá1:3
- awayAtletico Nacional1:2
- homeOnce Caldas0:2
- awayAmerica de Cali2:1
- homeIndependiente Santa Fe0:1
Head to head
- 04/26/26Primera A0:1
- 10/17/25Primera A1:3
- 04/27/25Primera A0:0
- 08/27/24Primera A2:2
- 02/17/24Primera A2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Colombia, Primera A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.