Baltika Kaliningrad — Rostov, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier LeagueOctober 18 at 05:45 PM

Baltika Kaliningrad

2.0LDLWD

—

Rostov

1.5LLWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

55%27%19%

Baltika Kaliningrad55%Draw27%Rostov19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Baltika Kaliningrad55%1.83—

XDraw27%3.72—

2Rostov19%5.39—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBaltika KaliningradRostovCombined

Goals scored1.330.672.00

Conceded1.172.003.17

Corners10.47.48.9

Cards2.22.24.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Baltika KaliningradRostov

FK Baltika Kaliningrad 55%, FK Rostov 19%. The safest is “FK Baltika Kaliningrad or draw” at 79%.

FK Baltika Kaliningrad 55%Draw 27%FK Rostov 19%

1st half

38 · 40 · 21

2nd half

37 · 40 · 23

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context