All matches

Rostov — Akron Togliatti, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier League

Rostov
1.5LLWLL
—
Akron Togliatti
1.2WDDDL
Outcome probability
493021
Rostov49%Draw30%Akron Togliatti21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Rostov49%54%2.041.86-4.9
XDraw30%26%3.363.88+3.9
2Akron Togliatti21%22%4.694.57-0.6

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83book 1.82

No45%

ours 2.20book 1.90

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRostovAkron TogliattiCombined
Goals scored0.831.672.50
Conceded2.171.834.00
Corners7.58.27.8
Cards2.34.06.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    RostovAkron Togliatti
    44.20%Possession53.50%
    13Table position12
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Rostov: a home win is rated at 49%. Bookmakers price this at 1.86.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%1.27
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Rostov

  • homeDinamo Moskva0:3
  • awaySpartak Moscow0:3
  • homeFakel Voronezh3:1
  • awayKrasnodar0:1
  • awayAkhmat Grozny1:4

Akron Togliatti

  • homeAkhmat Grozny2:0
  • awayKrasnodar1:1
  • awayOrenburg2:2
  • homeCSKA Moscow2:2
  • homeKrylia Sovetov0:3

Head to head

  • 05/11/26Russian Premier League3:1
  • 11/01/25Russian Premier League0:1
  • 03/31/25Russian Premier League3:2
  • 09/28/24Russian Premier League0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Akhmat Grozny924313:1310
11Orenburg91627:109
12Akron Togliatti915311:188
13Rostov922510:178
14Lokomotiv Moskva91448:117
15Rodina Moskva912610:225

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.