FC Lahti — Turun Palloseura, Veikkausliiga

Finland, VeikkausliigaOctober 17 at 11:00 AM

FC Lahti

1.7DLWWW

—

Turun Palloseura

1.8LLDDD

Outcome probability

422830

FC Lahti42%Draw28%Turun Palloseura30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Lahti42%2.36—

XDraw28%3.57—

2Turun Palloseura30%3.39—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.63

No62%

ours 1.61

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC LahtiTurun PalloseuraCombined

Goals scored1.170.171.34

Conceded1.000.831.83

Corners9.612.411.0

Cards2.62.04.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC LahtiTurun Palloseura
5Table position9
60.60%Possession52.00%
7.8Days of rest6.9
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Lahti: a home win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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