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Hradec Kralove vs Bohemians 1905 prediction

Czech Republic, First League

VARStats prediction for 28 November: Hradec Kralove 44%, draw 28%, Bohemians 1905 28%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.

  
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
44%28%28%
Hradec Kralove44%Draw28%Bohemians 190528%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Hradec Kralove44%2.27—
XDraw28%3.53—
2Bohemians 190528%3.62—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.16

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4407 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4392 matches

Cards prediction

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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4375 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Hradec KraloveBohemians 1905

FC Hradec Králové 44%, Bohemians 1905 28%. The safest is “FC Hradec Králové or draw” at 71%.

FC Hradec Králové 44%Draw 28%Bohemians 1905 28%
1st half
38 · 39 · 23
2nd half
31 · 36 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHradec KraloveBohemians 1905Combined
Goals scored0.801.001.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Hradec Kralove
  • Winless at home in 4 matches1:2, 2:4, 0:2, 0:0, 2:1
  • Winless in 5 matches1:3, 1:2, 0:0, 2:4, 0:2
  • Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches11 goals conceded
Bohemians 1905
  • 3 clean sheets in the last 50:0, 2:2, 1:0, 1:0, 1:2
  • Winless away in 4 matches2:2, 1:2, 0:3, 2:2, 2:0
  • 5 draws in 12 matches — most in the league10th place, 17 points

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Hradec Kralove

  • awayMlada Boleslav1:3
  • homeJablonec1:2
  • awaySlavia Prague0:0
  • homeArtis Brno2:4
  • homeTeplice0:2

Bohemians 1905

  • homeSparta Prague0:0
  • awayZbrojovka Brno2:2
  • homeMlada Boleslav1:0
  • homeBanik Ostrava1:0
  • awayPardubice1:2

Head to head

  • 08/02/26First League0:0
  • 04/05/26First League2:0
  • 11/02/25First League2:1
  • 05/25/25First League2:0
  • 05/18/25First League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Zbrojovka Brno1362516:1920
9Viktoria Plzen1354428:2119
10Bohemians 19051245313:1317
11Hradec Kralove1343612:1815
12Pardubice1342715:1914
13Banik Ostrava123277:2211

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.