All matches

Juventude vs Botafogo-SP prediction

Brazil, Serie B

VARStats prediction for 14 November: Juventude 63%, draw 23%, Botafogo-SP 14%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.

2.5DWDDW
  
1.8DWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
63%23%14%
Juventude63%Draw23%Botafogo-SP14%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Juventude63%1.59—
XDraw23%4.32—
2Botafogo-SP14%7.13—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

Fair price 2.11

No53%

Fair price 1.90

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4493 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4478 matches

Cards prediction

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4463 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

JuventudeBotafogo-SP

EC Juventude 63%, Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto 14%. The safest is “EC Juventude or draw” at 84%.

EC Juventude 63%Draw 23%Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto 14%
1st half
40 · 45 · 15
2nd half
48 · 32 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots on target: Under 9.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricJuventudeBotafogo-SPCombined
Goals scored2.401.403.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Juventude
  • schedule8 days’ rest
  • Best defence in the league — 25 conceded in 36 matches2nd place, 65 points
  • Unbeaten in 7 matches2:2, 4:0, 2:2, 2:2, 2:0
  • Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 8.8 per match20 teams in the league
Botafogo-SP
  • schedule9 days’ rest
  • 3 clean sheets in the last 51:1, 2:0, 1:0, 1:0, 2:1
  • Unbeaten away in 4 matches2:0, 1:0, 2:1, 1:1, 0:1
  • Most corners in the league in their matches — 12.4 per match20 teams in the league

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Juventude

  • awayVila Nova2:2
  • homeNautico4:0
  • awayCeara2:2
  • homeSao Bernardo2:2
  • awayPonte Preta2:0

Botafogo-SP

  • homeSC do Recife1:1
  • awayAvai2:0
  • awayCRB1:0
  • homeCeara1:0
  • awayOperario Ferroviario2:1

Head to head

  • 07/24/26Serie B2:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Gremio Novorizontino361910764:3167
2Juventude361811747:2565
3Vila Nova36189952:3863
4Fortaleza361614643:3162
5Criciuma361881038:3062
6SC do Recife361413948:3955
7AC Goianiense361413942:3355
8CRB361671354:5155
9Goias361671338:4155
10Sao Bernardo3614101251:4052
11Operario Ferroviario361491346:4851
12Botafogo-SP361391441:3948
13Cuiaba3611141133:3047
14Athletic (MG)3611141142:4147

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.