Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.97
No49%
ours 2.03
All matches
Vila Nova — Criciuma, Serie B
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%29%29%
Vila Nova42%Draw29%Criciuma29%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vila Nova2.39—
XDraw3.48—
2Criciuma3.40—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Vila NovaCriciuma
Vila Nova FC 42%, Criciuma EC 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 71%.
Vila Nova FC 42%Draw 29%Criciuma EC 29%
1st half
29 · 46 · 25
2nd half
35 · 37 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVila NovaCriciumaCombined
Goals scored1.401.002.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Vila Nova- Unbeaten at home in 7 matches2:2, 0:0, 2:0, 1:0, 2:0
- 3 clean sheets in the last 52:3, 2:2, 2:0, 0:0, 1:0
- 3rd in the table — 62 points from 35 matches
Criciuma- 3 clean sheets in the last 51:2, 1:0, 1:0, 0:1, 2:0
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Vila Nova
- awaySao Bernardo2:3
- homeGremio Novorizontino2:2
- awayNautico2:0
- homeCuiaba0:0
- awayBotafogo-SP1:0
Criciuma
- awaySC do Recife1:2
- awaySao Bernardo1:0
- homeAmerica Mineiro1:0
- awayCeara0:1
- awayLondrina2:0
Head to head
- 07/18/26Serie B0:2
- 10/03/25Serie B1:1
- 06/09/25Serie B0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Brazil, Serie B: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.