Fortaleza EC — AC Goianiense, Serie B

Brazil, Serie BOctober 30 at 12:00 AM

Fortaleza EC

2.4DWDWW

—

AC Goianiense

1.8WLWWD

Outcome probability

472924

Fortaleza EC47%Draw29%AC Goianiense24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Fortaleza EC47%2.12—

XDraw29%3.44—

2AC Goianiense24%4.18—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.79

No64%

ours 1.56

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFortaleza ECAC GoianienseCombined

Goals scored0.330.170.50

Conceded0.330.000.33

Corners6.013.09.5

Cards0.01.01.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Fortaleza ECAC Goianiense
3Table position6
69.00%Possession44.00%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Fortaleza EC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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