All matches

Atletico Grau — Los Chankas, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Atletico Grau
1.6LWLWW
—
Los Chankas
2.0DLLLL
Outcome probability
522622
Atletico Grau52%Draw26%Los Chankas22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atletico Grau52%61%1.931.63-9.5
XDraw26%24%3.804.24+2.7
2Los Chankas22%20%4.575.05+2.1

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.17book 1.82

No54%

ours 1.86book 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAtletico GrauLos ChankasCombined
Goals scored1.830.832.66
Conceded1.503.004.50
Corners9.08.58.8
Cards2.21.84.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Atletico GrauLos Chankas
    0Matches in 14 days1
    13Table position6
    14Days of rest8
    44.80%Possession51.30%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Club Atlético Grau: a home win is rated at 52%. Bookmakers price this at 1.63.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%1.46
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Atletico Grau

  • awaySporting Cristal1:3
  • homeAlianza Atletico Sullana3:1
  • awayGarcilaso2:4
  • homeMelgar1:0
  • awayCajamarca3:1

Los Chankas

  • awayCienciano1:1
  • homeCajamarca1:2
  • awaySporting Cristal0:5
  • homeJuan Pablo II3:4
  • awayUniversitario de Deportes0:3

Head to head

  • 04/17/26Primera División0:2
  • 08/10/25Primera División2:3
  • 03/10/25Primera División2:1
  • 08/21/24Primera División1:1
  • 03/15/24Primera División1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Melgar27137745:2946
5Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas27126936:4542
7Cienciano271251046:4041
8Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:3540
9Sporting Cristal271151148:4038
10Sport Boys27108929:2638
11Sport Huancayo271051237:4435
12Juan Pablo II27971142:5234
13Atletico Grau27951326:3132
14Comerciantes Unidos27791135:3830
15Cajamarca27761441:5227

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.