Both teams to score
Yes64%
Fair price 1.55
No36%
Fair price 2.81
All matches
Pachuca vs Deportivo Toluca prediction
VARStats prediction for 21 November: Deportivo Toluca 38%, Pachuca 36%, draw 26%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%26%38%
Pachuca36%Draw26%Deportivo Toluca38%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Pachuca2.79—
XDraw3.86—
2Deportivo Toluca2.61—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4493 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4478 matches
Cards prediction
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4463 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PachucaDeportivo Toluca
CF Pachuca 36%, Deportivo Toluca FC 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
CF Pachuca 36%Draw 26%Deportivo Toluca FC 38%
1st half
26 · 39 · 35
2nd half
36 · 33 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
69%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPachucaDeportivo TolucaCombined
Goals scored2.001.603.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Pachuca- schedule14 days’ rest
- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 9.4 per match18 teams in the league
- 10 goals in the last 5 matches3:0, 2:1, 1:2, 1:2, 3:3
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
Deportivo Toluca- schedule14 days’ rest
- Winless in 7 matches2:2, 1:1, 2:2, 1:1, 2:3
- Winless away in 4 matches2:2, 1:1, 2:3, 3:3, 1:0
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches9 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Pachuca
- homeTigres UANL3:0
- awayAmerica2:1
- homeCruz Azul1:2
- awayMonterrey1:2
- homeNecaxa3:3
Deportivo Toluca
- awayAmerica2:2
- awayLeon1:1
- homeTijuana2:2
- homeAtletico San Luis1:1
- awayTigres UANL2:3
Head to head
- 05/10/26Liga MX2:0
- 05/04/26Liga MX1:0
- 03/22/26Liga MX1:1
- 10/27/25Liga MX2:2
- 03/29/25Liga MX2:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Mexico, Liga MX: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.