All matches

CD Leones del Norte — CA Libertad, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

CD Leones del Norte
1.9DLDWL
—
CA Libertad
2.0WLWDL
Outcome probability
412930
CD Leones del Norte41%Draw29%CA Libertad30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CD Leones del Norte41%2.43—
XDraw29%3.48—
2CA Libertad30%3.33—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.21

No55%

ours 1.82

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD Leones del NorteCA LibertadCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners7.812.510.1
Cards2.52.55.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CD Leones del NorteCA Libertad
    8Table position7
    51.30%Possession48.00%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour CD Leones del Norte: a home win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CD Leones del Norte

  • awayGuayaquil City FC1:1
  • homeCD Técnico Universitario0:1
  • awayMushuc Runa SC1:1
  • homeOrense SC1:0
  • awayCS Emelec1:2

CA Libertad

  • awayCS Emelec2:1
  • homeCSD Independiente del Valle2:3
  • awayCD Cuenca1:0
  • homeCS Emelec1:1
  • awaySD Aucas0:1

Head to head

  • 07/04/26Primera Categoría Serie A3:1
  • 02/28/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito311471033:2549
6Barcelona SC301111832:2544
7CA Libertad311281135:3544
8CD Leones del Norte3110101132:3340
9Guayaquil City FC3110101134:3740
10Mushuc Runa SC319121036:3939

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.