All matches

CA Libertad — Guayaquil City FC, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

CA Libertad
2.0WLWDL
—
Guayaquil City FC
1.9DWLLW
Outcome probability
502724
CA Libertad50%Draw27%Guayaquil City FC24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CA Libertad50%2.02—
XDraw27%3.76—
2Guayaquil City FC24%4.19—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.98

No49%

ours 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA LibertadGuayaquil City FCCombined
Goals scored1.001.502.50
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners10.87.49.1
Cards2.22.44.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CA LibertadGuayaquil City FC
    7Table position9
    46.00%Possession56.60%
    7Days of rest7
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour CA Libertad: a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 9.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

CA Libertad

  • awayCS Emelec2:1
  • homeCSD Independiente del Valle2:3
  • awayCD Cuenca1:0
  • homeCS Emelec1:1
  • awaySD Aucas0:1

Guayaquil City FC

  • homeCD Leones del Norte1:1
  • homeMushuc Runa SC3:1
  • awayOrense SC3:4
  • awayCD Cuenca0:1
  • homeLiga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito2:1

Head to head

  • 08/15/26Primera Categoría Serie A2:2
  • 04/21/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito311471033:2549
6Barcelona SC301111832:2544
7CA Libertad311281135:3544
8CD Leones del Norte3110101132:3340
9Guayaquil City FC3110101134:3740
10Mushuc Runa SC319121036:3939
11CS Emelec311091226:3639

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.