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Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor: result 1:0

Turkey, Süper LigMatch finished

Final score 1:0. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Samsunspor 60%, draw 28%, Erzurumspor 12%.

1.9LWWDW
1:0HT 1:0
1.7LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
12%28%60%
ErzurumsporPrice 2.6712%DrawPrice 3.2128%SamsunsporPrice 2.9060%
Line-upsErzurumspor5-4-1—Samsunspor4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Erzurumspor5-4-1Samsunspor4-2-3-1

Erzurumspor5-4-1

Coach: Serkan Ozbalta

Starting XI

  • 1GKTürkiyeErtuğrul Taşkıran
  • 53DFTürkiyeOrhan Ovacıklı
  • 4DFKosovoAmar Gerxhaliu
  • 22DFTürkiyeMustafa Yumlu
  • 18DFBosnia and HerzegovinaNihad Mujakić
  • 15DFGeorgiaGuram Giorbelidze
  • 20MFPortugalMiguel Cardoso
  • 6MFBelgiumBrandon Baiye
  • 42MFGhanaElisha Owusu
  • 65MFChileMartín Rodríguez
  • 10FWTürkiyeEren Tozlu

Substitutes

  • 31GKCroatiaMatija Orbanić
  • 2DFRepublic of IrelandFesty Ebosele
  • 3DFTürkiyeYakup Kırtay
  • 23DFTürkiyeCengizhan Bayrak
  • 77MFGhanaLawrence Agyekum
  • 99FWTürkiyeMustafa Fettahoglu
  • 8MFTürkiyeSefa Akgün
  • 90FWAzerbaijanNariman Akhundzade
  • 19FWCôte d'IvoireIbrahim Diabaté
  • 9FWNetherlandsGyrano Kerk

Samsunspor4-2-3-1

Coach: Thorsten Fink

Starting XI

  • 1GKTürkiyeOkan Kocuk
  • 2DFSwedenJosafat Mendes
  • 16DFSerbiaStrahinja Eraković
  • 34DFItalyGabriele Guarino
  • 17DFIcelandLogi Tomasson
  • 5MFTürkiyeCelil Yüksel
  • 4MFScotlandElliot Watt
  • 30MFGambiaSaikuba Jarju
  • 8MFTürkiyeSamed Onur
  • 11MFTürkiyeEmre Kılınç
  • 18FWGuineaMohamed Bayo

Substitutes

  • 25GKNetherlandsBilal Bayazit
  • 13GKTürkiyeEfe Yiğit Üstün
  • 22DFTürkiyeYunus Emre Çift
  • 3DFPolandIgor Drapiński
  • 23DFTürkiyeEnes Albak
  • 29DFTürkiyeHaluk Mustafa Tan
  • 20MFTürkiyeYalçın Kayan
  • 10FWFranceTanguy Coulibaly
  • 42MFMaliAntoine Sekongo

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.00xG0.89
42Possession, %58
8Shots8
2Shots on target2
3Corners5
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
11Fouls14
0Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 74 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Samsunspor60%

    Actual: Erzurumspor — we had 12%

  • Total goals Landed
    Under 2.567%
  • Both teams to score Landed
    No67%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Erzurumspor12%36%8.542.67-24.7
XDraw28%30%3.573.21-2.1
2Samsunspor60%33%1.662.90+26.8

Big gap with the price. The price usually reflects something the model doesn’t know: a new team in the league, few matches, line-ups. Not a tip.

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Erzurumspor

  • homeCorum FK1:3
  • awayGaziantep3:1
  • homeEyupspor2:0
  • awayAlanyaspor0:0
  • homeSamsunspor1:0

Samsunspor

  • awayIstanbul Basaksehir2:5
  • homeAmedspor1:2
  • awayKasimpasa1:4
  • homeTrabzonspor0:3
  • awayErzurumspor0:1

Head to head

  • 09/20/26Süper Lig1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Goztepe1043321:1715
10Istanbul Basaksehir1042417:1614
11Erzurumspor104249:1514
12Alanyaspor93339:1112
13Caykur Rizespor1032511:1511
14Konyaspor102266:138
15Gaziantep102269:178
16Genclerbirligi92257:188
17Samsunspor1011810:264
18Eyupspor101093:283

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.