Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor: result 1:0
Final score 1:0. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Samsunspor 60%, draw 28%, Erzurumspor 12%.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Line-upsErzurumspor5-4-1—Samsunspor4-2-3-1
Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.
Erzurumspor5-4-1
Coach: Serkan Ozbalta
Starting XI
1GKErtuğrul Taşkıran
53DFOrhan Ovacıklı
4DFAmar Gerxhaliu
22DFMustafa Yumlu
18DFNihad Mujakić
15DFGuram Giorbelidze
20MFMiguel Cardoso
6MFBrandon Baiye
42MFElisha Owusu
65MFMartín Rodríguez
10FWEren Tozlu
Substitutes
31GK
Matija Orbanić2DFFesty Ebosele
3DFYakup Kırtay
23DFCengizhan Bayrak
77MFLawrence Agyekum
99FWMustafa Fettahoglu
8MFSefa Akgün
90FWNariman Akhundzade
19FWIbrahim Diabaté
9FWGyrano Kerk
Samsunspor4-2-3-1
Coach: Thorsten Fink
Starting XI
1GKOkan Kocuk
2DFJosafat Mendes
16DF
Strahinja Eraković34DFGabriele Guarino
17DFLogi Tomasson
5MFCelil Yüksel
4MFElliot Watt
30MFSaikuba Jarju
8MFSamed Onur
11MFEmre Kılınç
18FWMohamed Bayo
Substitutes
25GKBilal Bayazit
13GKEfe Yiğit Üstün
22DFYunus Emre Çift
3DFIgor Drapiński
23DFEnes Albak
29DFHaluk Mustafa Tan
20MFYalçın Kayan
10FWTanguy Coulibaly
42MFAntoine Sekongo
Match stats
How the match went in numbers.
How the forecast did
In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.
- Match result MissedSamsunspor60%
Actual: Erzurumspor — we had 12%
- Total goals LandedUnder 2.567%
- Both teams to score LandedNo67%
The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.
Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
Big gap with the price. The price usually reflects something the model doesn’t know: a new team in the league, few matches, line-ups. Not a tip.
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Form and context
Erzurumspor
- homeCorum FK1:3
- awayGaziantep3:1
- homeEyupspor2:0
- awayAlanyaspor0:0
- homeSamsunspor1:0
Samsunspor
- awayIstanbul Basaksehir2:5
- homeAmedspor1:2
- awayKasimpasa1:4
- homeTrabzonspor0:3
- awayErzurumspor0:1
Head to head
- 09/20/26Süper Lig1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
More matches in this competition
Turkey, Süper Lig: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.


