All matches

AIK Fotboll — IF Brommapojkarna, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

AIK Fotboll
2.4LLDWW
—
IF Brommapojkarna
1.4LLWLW
Outcome probability
492328
AIK Fotboll49%Draw23%IF Brommapojkarna28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AIK Fotboll49%2.03—
XDraw23%4.33—
2IF Brommapojkarna28%3.61—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.75

No43%

ours 2.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAIK FotbollIF BrommapojkarnaCombined
Goals scored1.331.332.66
Conceded1.501.673.17
Corners8.210.79.4
Cards2.40.83.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AIK FotbollIF Brommapojkarna
    8Table position11
    41.70%Possession49.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AIK Fotboll look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 49%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AIK Fotboll

  • awayHalmstads BK1:2
  • homeVästerås SK Fotboll1:4
  • awayMalmö FF0:0
  • homeHammarby IF3:2
  • awayDjurgårdens IF3:1

IF Brommapojkarna

  • homeIFK Göteborg0:1
  • awayHammarby IF1:3
  • homeIF Elfsborg2:1
  • awayGAIS0:4
  • homeDegerfors2:0

Head to head

  • 04/13/26Allsvenskan2:2
  • 09/15/25Allsvenskan2:1
  • 05/25/25Allsvenskan1:0
  • 08/25/24Allsvenskan2:1
  • 04/06/24Allsvenskan2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Västerås SK Fotboll22105734:3535
7Malmö FF22103937:3333
8AIK Fotboll2195730:3332
9IFK Göteborg2295831:4132
10GAIS2186728:1830
11IF Brommapojkarna2276930:3627
12Mjällby AIF21561026:3721
13Degerfors21541219:3219

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.