All matches

AFC UTA Arad — SCS CFR 1907 Cluj, Liga I

Romania, Liga I

AFC UTA Arad
2.0WLWWD
—
SCS CFR 1907 Cluj
2.8WLDWW
Outcome probability
333037
AFC UTA Arad33%Draw30%SCS CFR 1907 Cluj37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AFC UTA Arad33%3.04—
XDraw30%3.36—
2SCS CFR 1907 Cluj37%2.68—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAFC UTA AradSCS CFR 1907 ClujCombined
Goals scored1.831.173.00
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners9.27.88.5
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AFC UTA AradSCS CFR 1907 Cluj
    1Matches in 14 days2
    6.4Days of rest4.4
    10Table position8
    50.20%Possession48.50%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, SCS CFR 1907 Cluj still look stronger — an away win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AFC UTA Arad

  • homeSepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe1:0
  • awaySSC Farul Constanţa2:4
  • homeAFK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc5:1
  • awaySC Fotbal Club FCSB SA3:1
  • homeFC Corvinul Hunedoara0:0

SCS CFR 1907 Cluj

  • homeAFC Botoşani3:1
  • awaySepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe1:3
  • homeSSC Farul Constanţa0:0
  • awayAFK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc3:2
  • homeSC Fotbal Club FCSB SA1:0

Head to head

  • 02/04/26Liga I0:1
  • 09/21/25Liga I1:1
  • 02/10/25Liga I1:4
  • 09/28/24Liga I3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6SSC Farul Constanţa1035214:1414
7FC Corvinul Hunedoara1034311:913
8SCS CFR 1907 Cluj941415:1413
9Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe103437:1013
10AFC UTA Arad1033414:1512
11SC Fotbal Club FCSB SA1033413:1712
12AFC Botoşani1025314:1211

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.