SCS CFR 1907 Cluj — FC Universitatea Cluj, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 8 at 05:30 PM

SCS CFR 1907 Cluj

2.8WLDWW

—

FC Universitatea Cluj

2.7WWLLL

Outcome probability

422929

SCS CFR 1907 Cluj42%Draw29%FC Universitatea Cluj29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SCS CFR 1907 Cluj42%38%2.412.60+3.0

XDraw29%31%3.433.18-2.3

2FC Universitatea Cluj29%38%3.412.63-8.7

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82book 1.79

No45%

ours 2.22book 1.92

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSCS CFR 1907 ClujFC Universitatea ClujCombined

Goals scored1.331.673.00

Conceded1.501.673.17

Corners7.510.59.0

Cards1.22.03.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SCS CFR 1907 ClujFC Universitatea Cluj
8Table position5
47.00%Possession57.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SCS CFR 1907 Cluj look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 41%. Bookmakers price this at 2.60.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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