ACF Fiorentina — Calcio Como, Serie A

Italy, Serie AOctober 18 at 01:00 PM

ACF Fiorentina

2.2DWLLL

—

Calcio Como

2.8LWWWW

Outcome probability

182458

ACF Fiorentina18%Draw24%Calcio Como58%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1ACF Fiorentina18%5.62—

XDraw24%4.13—

2Calcio Como58%1.72—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricACF FiorentinaCalcio ComoCombined

Goals scored1.001.672.67

Conceded2.000.832.83

Corners8.211.39.7

Cards1.81.53.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
ACF FiorentinaCalcio Como
17Table position8
8Days of rest3.8
1Matches in 14 days2
43.40%Possession60.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Calcio Como travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 58%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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