Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.06
No51%
ours 1.94
All matches
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Olympique Lyonnais — OGC Nice Côte d'Azur, Ligue 1
France, Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais
3.0WWDWDOGC Nice Côte d'Azur
1.3WLDLDOutcome probability
6819
Olympique Lyonnais68%Draw19%OGC Nice Côte d'Azur14%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Olympique Lyonnais1.48—
XDraw5.40—
2OGC Nice Côte d'Azur7.19—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricOlympique LyonnaisOGC Nice Côte d'AzurCombined
Goals scored1.500.502.00
Conceded0.331.001.33
Corners10.59.29.8
Cards2.31.63.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Olympique LyonnaisOGC Nice Côte d'Azur2Table position143.1Days of rest7.22Matches in 14 days148.80%Possession57.00% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Olympique Lyonnais: a home win is rated at 68%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Form and context
Olympique Lyonnais
- homeStade Rennais FC4:0
- awayRSC Anderlecht2:1
- awayParis FC0:0
- homeAssociation Jeunesse Auxerroise3:1
- homeLe Havre AC1:1
OGC Nice Côte d'Azur
- homeLille OSC Métropole2:1
- awayAssociation Jeunesse Auxerroise0:1
- homeLe Mans FC1:1
- awayParis FC0:3
- homeFC Lorient0:0
Head to head
- 02/15/26Ligue 12:0
- 10/18/25Ligue 12:3
- 03/09/25Ligue 12:0
- 12/01/24Ligue 14:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
AS Monaco FC54108:313
AS Monaco FC54108:3132Olympique Lyonnais532010:211
Olympique Lyonnais532010:2113
Paris FC53208:311
Paris FC53208:3114
Lille OSC Métropole53118:410
Lille OSC Métropole53118:4105
Stade Rennais FC53118:910
Stade Rennais FC53118:9106
Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:78
Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:787
Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest52126:57
Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest52126:578
RC Strasbourg Alsace521210:107
RC Strasbourg Alsace521210:1079
Le Mans FC51319:96
Le Mans FC51319:9610
Association Jeunesse Auxerroise52037:126
Association Jeunesse Auxerroise52037:12611
Stade Brestois 2951227:85
Stade Brestois 2951227:8512
FC Lorient51225:65
FC Lorient51225:6513
Toulouse FC51227:95
Toulouse FC51227:9514OGC Nice Côte d'Azur51223:65
OGC Nice Côte d'Azur51223:6515
Racing Club de Lens51139:94
Racing Club de Lens51139:9416
Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne51134:114
Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne51134:114