FC København — Odense BK, Superliga

Denmark, SuperligaOctober 26 at 06:00 PM

FC København

3.2WWWWW

—

Odense BK

1.7DWLDD

Outcome probability

6919

FC København69%Draw19%Odense BK12%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC København69%1.45—

XDraw19%5.40—

2Odense BK12%8.10—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC KøbenhavnOdense BKCombined

Goals scored0.500.671.17

Conceded0.001.331.33

Corners8.010.89.4

Cards1.02.33.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC KøbenhavnOdense BK
1Table position9
3Matches in 14 days1
4.1Days of rest8.2
51.50%Possession59.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC København: a home win is rated at 69%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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