All matches

FC København — Sporting Braga, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

FC København
3.2WWWWW
—
Sporting Braga
3.5DWLWW
Outcome probability
402634
FC København40%Draw26%Sporting Braga34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC København40%2.48—
XDraw26%3.86—
2Sporting Braga34%2.96—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.43

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC KøbenhavnSporting BragaCombined
Goals scored2.170.833.00
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners7.27.67.4
Cards1.62.03.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC KøbenhavnSporting Braga
    4.1Days of rest6
    5Table position7
    48.20%Possession59.00%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC København: a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC København

  • awayBrøndby IF1:0
  • homeAC Horsens2:0
  • awayOdense BK5:0
  • homeFC Nordsjælland2:0
  • homeSønderjysk Elitesport Fodbold3:1

Sporting Braga

  • awayCD Santa Clara0:0
  • homeGD Estoril Praia1:0
  • awayEstrela Amadora1:2
  • awayAlverca2:1
  • homeVitória Guimarães SC1:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3FK Partizan Beograd650113:515
4SK Rapid Wien642019:814
5FC København642017:614
6FC Lugano642013:514
7Sporting Braga64208:014
8Riga FC642012:614
9FK Borac Banja Luka641114:713

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.