All matches

Nautico — Avai, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

Nautico
1.8DWLDL
—
Avai
1.6LLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
56%24%20%
Nautico56%Draw24%Avai20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nautico56%1.77—
XDraw24%4.16—
2Avai20%5.10—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.74

No43%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNauticoAvaiCombined
Goals scored0.670.000.67
Conceded0.330.671.00
Corners15.510.513.0
Cards2.04.56.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

NauticoAvai

Clube Náutico Capibaribe 56%, Avai FC 20%. The safest is “Clube Náutico Capibaribe or draw” at 79%.

Clube Náutico Capibaribe 56%Draw 24%Avai FC 20%
1st half
37 · 40 · 23
2nd half
44 · 35 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Nautico

  • awayFortaleza1:1
  • homeSC do Recife3:1
  • awayCuiaba0:3
  • homeOperario Ferroviario3:3
  • awayAmerica Mineiro1:2

Avai

  • homeCeara0:1
  • awayCriciuma0:3
  • awayGoias1:2
  • homeVila Nova1:1
  • awayFortaleza0:1

Head to head

  • 07/12/26Serie B0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Sao Bernardo311291043:3245
12Athletic (MG)311012937:3542
13Nautico311191139:3842
14Goias311261330:3942
15Ceara311091234:3939
16Botafogo-SP31981434:3735
17Avai31861730:4230
18Londrina31771739:4528
19America Mineiro31452221:5217

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.