Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.33
All matches
Sao Bernardo — Athletic (MG), Serie B
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%25%22%
Sao Bernardo53%Draw25%Athletic (MG)22%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sao Bernardo1.88—
XDraw4.07—
2Athletic (MG)4.52—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3682 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3671 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3661 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Sao BernardoAthletic (MG)
São Bernardo FC 53%, Athletic Club (Minas Gerais) 22%. The safest is “São Bernardo FC or draw” at 78%.
São Bernardo FC 53%Draw 25%Athletic Club (Minas Gerais) 22%
1st half
32 · 43 · 24
2nd half
49 · 30 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSao BernardoAthletic (MG)Combined
Goals scored1.800.802.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Sao Bernardo- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 53:2, 0:1, 2:2, 1:2, 3:1
Athletic (MG)- Winless in 7 matches0:1, 0:0, 2:2, 1:2, 1:2
- Winless away in 4 matches0:1, 0:0, 1:2, 2:2, 2:0
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Sao Bernardo
- homeVila Nova3:2
- homeCriciuma0:1
- awayJuventude2:2
- awaySC do Recife1:2
- homeCRB3:1
Athletic (MG)
- awayOperario Ferroviario0:1
- awayAvai0:0
- homeLondrina2:2
- awayGoias1:2
- homeSC do Recife1:2
Head to head
- 07/23/26Serie B1:2
- 06/29/24Serie C3:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Brazil, Serie B: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.