All matches

Pärnu JK Vaprus — JK Narva Trans, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Pärnu JK Vaprus
1.3LLLLW
—
JK Narva Trans
1.1DLDLL
Outcome probability
522127
Pärnu JK Vaprus52%Draw21%JK Narva Trans27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Pärnu JK Vaprus52%1.94—
XDraw21%4.79—
2JK Narva Trans27%3.64—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.70

No63%

ours 1.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPärnu JK VaprusJK Narva TransCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded2.332.334.66
Corners10.78.89.8
Cards1.81.23.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Pärnu JK VaprusJK Narva Trans
    7Table position10
    46.50%Possession50.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Pärnu JK Vaprus look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Pärnu JK Vaprus

  • awayTallinna FC Flora2:3
  • awayPaide Linnameeskond0:2
  • awayTallinna FC Levadia0:4
  • homeHarju Jalgpallikool2:3
  • homeFC Nõmme United1:0

JK Narva Trans

  • homeTallinna FC Levadia1:1
  • awayNõmme Kalju FC0:2
  • homeTallinna FC Flora2:2
  • awayFC Kuressaare1:3
  • homeJK Tammeka Tartu0:2

Head to head

  • 07/18/26Meistriliiga1:3
  • 05/09/26Meistriliiga2:0
  • 03/21/26Meistriliiga1:2
  • 10/18/25Meistriliiga1:1
  • 07/12/25Meistriliiga0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5JK Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Pärnu JK Vaprus29941638:5831
8FC Kuressaare29851631:4929
9FC Nõmme United29911947:6828
10JK Narva Trans29542022:6519

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.