Once Caldas 1:0 Alianza Valledupar, Primera A
Colombia, Primera AMatch finished
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Line-upsOnce Caldas4-2-3-1—Alianza Valledupar4-2-3-1
Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.
Once Caldas4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99GK
Felipe Parra22DFJuan David Cuesta2DFJorge Cardona30DFDaniel Londoño77′33DFJuan Patiño5MFJuan Pablo Nieto88′23MFAndres Colorado7MFMichael Barrios52′69′76′42MFJader Quinones88′9MFPipe Gómez89′14FWJefry Zapata76′
Substitutes
12GK
Jesús Camargo4DFEfraín Navarro18DFJeider Riquett16DFJuan Castaño88′15MFJaime Alvarado29FWEdwin Torres89′19MFTomas García88′17FWDayro Moreno76′21FWHelieyker Guzman76′
Alianza Valledupar4-2-3-1
Starting XI
40GKEduar Beltrán60DFYilson Rosales46′3DFKevin Moreno5DFPedro Franco32DFJuan Viveros71′72′33MFJhildrey Lasso7MFJair Castillo17MFFelipe Pardo62′55MF
Wiston Fernández8MFJesús Muñoz72′77FWMisael Martínez72′
Substitutes
13GKAntonio Simancas23DFIsrael Alba46′81′6MFEver Meza27MFYeiner Londoño72′10FWDéinner Quiñones72′88MFLeyner Palacios72′18FWCristian Andres Vergara Rivas62′75′
Match stats
How the match went in numbers.
How the forecast did
In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.
- Match result LandedOnce Caldas59%
- Total goals MissedOver 2.559%
Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 41%
- Both teams to score MissedYes56%
Actual: No — we had 44%
The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Form and context
Once Caldas
- homeAlianza Valledupar1:0
- homeDeportivo Pereira1:1
- awayMillonarios1:1
- awayIndependiente Medellin2:0
- homeLlaneros1:0
Alianza Valledupar
- awayOnce Caldas0:1
- homeInter Bogotá1:0
- awayPasto1:0
- homeRionegro Aguilas2:2
- awayDeportivo Cali1:3
Head to head
- 10/28/26Primera A1:0
- 02/08/26Primera A1:1
- 08/15/25Primera A0:0
- 03/02/25Primera A1:2
- 10/06/24Primera A0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
More matches in this competition
Colombia, Primera A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market of the forecast published before the match.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.