Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.90
No47%
ours 2.11
All matches
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Rijeka — Varazdin, Prva HNL
Croatia, Prva HNL
Rijeka
2.7WDWDL
Varazdin
2.3DDDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
54%26%20%
Rijeka54%Draw26%Varazdin20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Rijeka1.86—
XDraw3.78—
2Varazdin5.07—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRijekaVarazdinCombined
Goals scored1.330.331.66
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners9.38.38.8
Cards2.01.73.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
RijekaVarazdin
HNK Rijeka 54%, NK Varaždin 20%. The safest is “HNK Rijeka or draw” at 82%.
HNK Rijeka 54%Draw 26%NK Varaždin 20%
1st half
39 · 40 · 21
2nd half
41 · 39 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Home
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Rijeka
- homeHajduk Split3:0
- awayLokomotiva Zagreb1:1
- homeOsijek4:1
- awayGorica0:0
- homeMidtjylland1:4
Varazdin
- homeOsijek0:0
- awayGorica2:2
- homeIstra0:0
- homeRudes2:0
- awayDinamo Zagreb1:3
Head to head
- 08/16/26Prva HNL0:2
- 04/22/26Prva HNL0:1
- 02/14/26Prva HNL3:1
- 11/09/25Prva HNL0:1
- 08/24/25Prva HNL1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Hajduk Split851216:816
Hajduk Split851216:8163
Osijek851217:1116
Osijek851217:11164Varazdin843113:715
Varazdin843113:7155Rijeka742113:714
Rijeka742113:7146
Istra823314:139
Istra823314:1397
Lokomotiva Zagreb821511:167
Lokomotiva Zagreb821511:167Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.