Newcastle United vs Hull City: result 2:1
Final score 2:1. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Hull City 41%, draw 35%, Newcastle United 24%.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Line-upsNewcastle United4-2-3-1—Hull City5-4-1
Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.
Newcastle United4-2-3-1
Coach: Matthias Jaissle
Starting XI
21GKL. Horníček
23DFJ. Murphy
12DFM. Thiaw
4DFS. Botman
3DFL. Hall
14MFSean Steur
67MFL. Miley
11MFH. Barnes
28MFJ. Willock
20MFM. Fernandez-Pardo
9FWY. Wissa
Substitutes
76MFM. Miley17FWB. Touré
8MFA. Bamba
5DFF. Schär
48DF
Miodrag Pivaš1GKN. Pope
49FWV. Salia
44FWK. Thompson77FWM. Mills
Hull City5-4-1
Coach: S. Jakirović
Starting XI
19GKK. Tzolakis
2DFL. Coyle
6DFS. Ajayi
15DFJ. Egan
22DFL. Herrington
3DFR. Giles
10MFM. Belloumi
25MFM. Crooks
27MFR. Slater
7MF
S. Thomas9FWO. McBurnie
Substitutes
50FWM. Cho
12GKD. Phillips
17DF
P. McNair11FWJ. Gelhardt
14MFJ. Hjertø-Dahl
21MFE. Stroud
29MFL. Gourna-Douath
42MFT. Iroegbunam
47FWR. Vaz
Match stats
How the match went in numbers.
How the forecast did
In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.
- Match result MissedHull City41%
Actual: Newcastle United — we had 24%
- Total goals MissedUnder 2.572%
Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 28%
- Both teams to score MissedNo63%
Actual: Yes — we had 37%
The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.
Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
Big gap with the price. The price usually reflects something the model doesn’t know: a new team in the league, few matches, line-ups. Not a tip.
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Form and context
Newcastle United
- awayCrystal Palace2:0
- homeAston Villa0:1
- awayCoventry City1:4
- homeHull City2:1
- awayLeeds United1:4
Hull City
- homeIpswich Town2:2
- homeBrentford1:1
- awayFulham0:1
- homeEverton2:2
- awayNewcastle United1:2
Head to head
- 09/19/26Premier League2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
More matches in this competition
England, Premier League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.


