Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.28
All matches
—
Liverpool — Arsenal, Premier League
England, Premier League
Liverpool
3.3WDWWD
Arsenal
4.4LWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
33%26%41%
Liverpool33%Draw26%Arsenal41%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liverpool3.04—
XDraw3.82—
2Arsenal2.44—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLiverpoolArsenalCombined
Goals scored0.170.000.17
Conceded0.000.500.50
Corners6.011.08.5
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LiverpoolArsenal
Liverpool FC 33%, Arsenal FC 41%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Liverpool FC 33%Draw 26%Arsenal FC 41%
1st half
34 · 41 · 25
2nd half
29 · 38 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Liverpool
- awayBournemouth1:0
- homeFulham0:0
- homeAtletico Madrid2:1
- awayIpswich Town2:0
- homeNottingham Forest2:2
Arsenal
- awayBrighton0:3
- awaySunderland2:0
- awayNapoli1:0
- homeChelsea2:1
- awayAston Villa1:0
Head to head
- 01/08/26Premier League0:0
- 08/31/25Premier League1:0
- 05/11/25Premier League2:2
- 10/27/24Premier League2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Manchester City550013:515
Manchester City550013:5152Arsenal54018:412
Arsenal54018:4123
Brighton531116:510
Brighton531116:5104
Brentford523010:49
Brentford523010:495
Leeds United52307:39
Leeds United52307:396Liverpool52307:49
Liverpool52307:497
Everton52306:39
Everton52306:398
Hull City52216:48
Hull City52216:48Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.