All matches

Tottenham — Crystal Palace, Premier League

England, Premier League

Tottenham
1.8LDDLL
—
Crystal Palace
2.4DWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
43%27%31%
Tottenham43%Draw27%Crystal Palace31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Tottenham43%2.34—
XDraw27%3.77—
2Crystal Palace31%3.24—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.74

No43%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTottenhamCrystal PalaceCombined
Goals scored0.330.000.33
Conceded0.500.000.50
Corners11.77.09.3
Cards1.03.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TottenhamCrystal Palace

Tottenham Hotspur FC 43%, Crystal Palace FC 31%. The safest is “Tottenham Hotspur FC or draw” at 75%.

Tottenham Hotspur FC 43%Draw 27%Crystal Palace FC 31%
1st half
42 · 36 · 22
2nd half
34 · 39 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Tottenham

  • homeAston Villa2:3
  • homeEverton0:0
  • awayNottingham Forest0:0
  • homeNewcastle United0:2
  • awayBrentford0:3

Crystal Palace

  • awayLeeds United0:0
  • homeLech Poznan4:0
  • homeIpswich Town2:3
  • awayFulham3:2
  • homeManchester City1:4

Head to head

  • 03/05/26Premier League1:3
  • 12/28/25Premier League1:0
  • 05/11/25Premier League0:2
  • 10/27/24Premier League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Nottingham Forest51224:55
14Sunderland51136:104
15Crystal Palace51136:114
16Aston Villa51134:94
17Bournemouth50326:83
18Coventry City51041:103
19Fulham50235:82
20Tottenham50232:82

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.