Both teams to score
Yes63%
ours 1.58price 1.48
No37%
ours 2.72price 2.50
All matches
Manchester United — Aston Villa, Premier League: match prediction and stats
Match prediction and stats
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%25%30%
Manchester UnitedPrice 2.3245%DrawPrice 3.9425%Aston VillaPrice 3.0230%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Manchester United2.252.32+2.0
XDraw3.973.94+0.3
2Aston Villa3.303.02-2.3
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4185 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4170 matches
Cards prediction
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4155 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Manchester UnitedAston Villa
Manchester United FC 45%, Aston Villa FC 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Manchester United FC 45%Draw 25%Aston Villa FC 30%
1st half
39 · 39 · 22
2nd half
40 · 31 · 29
Prices: 2.32 · 3.94 · 3.02
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
70%1.44
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricManchester UnitedAston VillaCombined
Goals scored0.402.603.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Manchester United- Winless in 8 matches0:2, 0:3, 1:4, 1:1, 0:2
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches12 goals conceded
- Only 2 goals in the last 5 matches0:2, 0:3, 1:4, 1:1, 0:2
Aston Villa- 13 goals in the last 5 matches1:1, 2:1, 3:1, 1:0, 6:0
- Unbeaten in 7 matches1:1, 2:1, 3:1, 1:0, 6:0
- Unbeaten away in 4 matches1:0, 3:2, 3:2, 0:0, 0:4
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Manchester United
- awayChelsea0:2
- homeBournemouth0:3
- awayComo1:4
- awayLeeds United1:1
- awayAtletico Madrid0:2
Aston Villa
- homeFulham1:1
- homeManchester City2:1
- homeViking3:1
- awayNewcastle United1:0
- homeFenerbahce6:0
Head to head
- 03/15/26Premier League3:1
- 12/21/25Premier League1:2
- 05/25/25Premier League2:0
- 10/06/24Premier League0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
England, Premier League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.