Malmö FF — Kalmar FF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 12 at 05:00 PM

Malmö FF

2.4LWDWL

—

Kalmar FF

1.2LLLLD

Outcome probability

641917

Malmö FF64%Draw19%Kalmar FF17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Malmö FF64%1.57—

XDraw19%5.14—

2Kalmar FF17%5.92—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.14

No53%

ours 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMalmö FFKalmar FFCombined

Goals scored1.000.001.00

Conceded1.002.003.00

Corners10.310.510.4

Cards2.20.72.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Malmö FFKalmar FF
7Table position14
55.20%Possession49.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Malmö FF: a home win is rated at 64%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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