Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No41%
ours 2.47
All matches
Lusail — Al Arabi, Stars League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
34%23%43%
Lusail34%Draw23%Al Arabi43%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lusail2.96—
XDraw4.36—
2Al Arabi2.31—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LusailAl Arabi
Lusail City FC 34%, Al Arabi SC 43%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
Lusail City FC 34%Draw 23%Al Arabi SC 43%
1st half
32 · 37 · 30
2nd half
26 · 34 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Away
70%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLusailAl ArabiCombined
Goals scored1.002.603.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Lusail- 3 clean sheets in the last 51:3, 0:0, 0:1, 0:0, 4:0
- Fewest shots on target in the league — 3.7 per match12 teams in the league
- Worst attack in the league — 8 goals in 7 matches9th place, 6 points
Al Arabi- 3 clean sheets in the last 52:3, 6:0, 3:2, 0:0, 2:0
- 13 goals in the last 5 matches2:3, 6:0, 3:2, 0:0, 2:0
- Most corners in the league in their matches — 12.6 per match12 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Lusail
- awayAl Duhail1:3
- homeAl Shamal0:0
- awayAl Shahaniya0:1
- awayAl Gharafa0:0
- homeAl Wakrah4:0
Al Arabi
- awayAl Wakrah2:3
- awayAl Shahaniya6:0
- awayAl Sadd3:2
- homeQatar SC0:0
- awayAl Sailiya2:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Qatar, Stars League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.