Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.66
No40%
ours 2.51
All matches
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Qatar SC — Al Gharafa, Stars League
Qatar, Stars League
Qatar SC
1.6LDLLD
Al Gharafa
1.8LDLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
32%21%47%
Qatar SC32%Draw21%Al Gharafa47%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Qatar SC3.16—
XDraw4.70—
2Al Gharafa2.12—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1377 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1376 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1368 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Qatar SCAl Gharafa
Qatar SC 32%, Al Gharafa SC 47%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
Qatar SC 32%Draw 21%Al Gharafa SC 47%
1st half
21 · 43 · 36
2nd half
27 · 30 · 43
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricQatar SCAl GharafaCombined
Goals scored0.330.671.00
Conceded1.671.673.34
Corners8.810.39.5
Cards2.31.84.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
Qatar SC
- homeAl Rayyan0:3
- awayAl Arabi0:0
- awayAl Ahli Doha0:1
- homeAl Sadd2:6
- awayAl Wakrah2:2
Al Gharafa
- awayAl Wakrah2:3
- homeLusail0:0
- awayAl Sadd1:4
- homeAl Shamal1:3
- homeAl Shahaniya2:1
Head to head
- 03/12/26Stars League2:0
- 11/07/25Stars League1:2
- 02/22/25Stars League2:4
- 09/22/24Stars League1:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Lusail51227:55
Lusail51227:559
Al Wakrah51227:115
Al Wakrah51227:11510Al Gharafa51136:114
Al Gharafa51136:11411Qatar SC50234:122
Qatar SC50234:12212
Al Sailiya50055:180
Al Sailiya50055:180Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.