All matches

Lillestrom — Molde, Eliteserien

Norway, Eliteserien

Lillestrom
1.5LLWWL
—
Molde
2.3LWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
32%23%45%
LillestromMarket 3.0432%DrawMarket 4.0023%MoldeMarket 2.1345%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lillestrom32%33%3.113.04-0.8
XDraw23%25%4.334.00-1.9
2Molde45%47%2.232.13-2.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.68book 1.32

No41%

ours 2.47book 3.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLillestromMoldeCombined
Goals scored1.332.674.00
Conceded1.831.673.50
Corners13.310.011.7
Cards1.72.23.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LillestromMolde

Lillestrøm SK 32%, Molde FK 45%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Lillestrøm SK 32%Draw 23%Molde FK 45%
1st half
33 · 34 · 33
2nd half
27 · 38 · 35

Bookmakers: 3.04 · 4.00 · 2.13

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

67%1.38
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Lillestrom

  • awayViking0:3
  • homeTorreense1:2
  • homeVålerenga Fotball2:0
  • awayBrann2:1
  • homeFredrikstad1:4

Molde

  • homeAalesunds1:2
  • awayHamKam5:1
  • homeKFUM2:0
  • awayVålerenga Fotball4:3
  • homeTromso3:2

Head to head

  • 04/06/26Eliteserien1:0
  • 08/11/24Eliteserien1:2
  • 07/07/24Eliteserien0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Bodo/Glimt20152350:1747
3Tromso21115540:2938
4Molde21113744:3236
5Rosenborg21103839:3033
6Lillestrom21102928:2932
7Brann21921039:3229
8Fredrikstad2184925:3228

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.