Both teams to score
Yes38%
ours 2.61
No62%
ours 1.62
All matches
—
Eupen — Virton, First Division B
Belgium, First Division B
Eupen
WWWLW
Virton
DWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
34%30%36%
Eupen34%Draw30%Virton36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Eupen2.93—
XDraw3.38—
2Virton2.75—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos: result and total
Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.
Combos come with a subscription: probability, fair odds and the market comparison for all 24 combinations.
Sign upCombos: result and corners
The result comes from the goals model, corners from the corners model. The link between them is measured on 66,000 played matches: the winning side usually takes fewer corners, because the team chasing the game does the crossing. The market has no ready line for these combinations, so «Market» here is a parlay of two separate bets: the result and the corners total.
Corner combos come with a subscription: probability and fair odds for all 48 combinations.
Sign upAverage totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricEupenVirtonCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners10.38.39.3
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
EupenVirton
KAS Eupen 34%, Royal Excelsior Virton 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 70%.
KAS Eupen 34%Draw 30%Royal Excelsior Virton 36%
1st half
22 · 54 · 24
2nd half
27 · 45 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Eupen
- homeRFC Liege3:1
- awayPatro Eisden2:1
- awayClub Brugge II1:0
- awayLokeren-Temse1:2
- homeJong Genk4:1
Virton
- awayLokeren-Temse1:1
- homeJong Genk3:0
- homeFrancs Borains0:1
- awayAnderlecht Futures1:0
- homeLierse Kempenzonen3:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
KFCO Beerschot-Wilrijk650113:515
KFCO Beerschot-Wilrijk650113:5152
FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem65018:215
FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem65018:2153Eupen540111:512
Eupen540111:5124
Francs Borains54019:412
Francs Borains54019:4125Virton53118:210
Virton53118:2106
Lokeren-Temse631213:1110
Lokeren-Temse631213:11107
Sporting Hasselt63034:79
Sporting Hasselt63034:79Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.