IK Start — Sandefjord Fotball, Eliteserien

Norway, EliteserienOctober 25 at 04:00 PM

IK Start

1.5LWLWL

—

Sandefjord Fotball

1.8WDDWL

Outcome probability

342541

IK Start34%Draw25%Sandefjord Fotball41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1IK Start34%2.93—

XDraw25%4.02—

2Sandefjord Fotball41%2.44—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.03

No51%

ours 1.97

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIK StartSandefjord FotballCombined

Goals scored1.000.671.67

Conceded1.000.171.17

Corners12.89.711.2

Cards1.83.04.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
IK StartSandefjord Fotball
16Table position11
46.20%Possession60.20%
7Days of rest7
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Sandefjord Fotball travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 41%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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