Sandefjord Fotball — Lillestrøm SK, Eliteserien

Norway, EliteserienOctober 18 at 03:00 PM

Sandefjord Fotball

1.8WDDWL

—

Lillestrøm SK

1.5LLWWL

Outcome probability

542323

Sandefjord Fotball54%Draw23%Lillestrøm SK23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sandefjord Fotball54%1.85—

XDraw23%4.39—

2Lillestrøm SK23%4.32—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.18

No54%

ours 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSandefjord FotballLillestrøm SKCombined

Goals scored1.000.831.83

Conceded0.331.001.33

Corners9.812.511.1

Cards3.31.34.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Sandefjord FotballLillestrøm SK
8Days of rest2.9
1Matches in 14 days2
11Table position6
67.80%Possession39.80%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Sandefjord Fotball look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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