Granada CF — Cádiz CF, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda DivisiónOctober 18 at 02:15 PM

Granada CF

1.7LLDLW

—

Cádiz CF

1.1DLLLD

Outcome probability

582319

Granada CF58%Draw23%Cádiz CF19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Granada CF58%1.73—

XDraw23%4.28—

2Cádiz CF19%5.28—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGranada CFCádiz CFCombined

Goals scored0.830.671.50

Conceded1.671.172.84

Corners10.88.09.4

Cards2.53.56.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Granada CFCádiz CF
13Table position20
59.30%Possession51.80%
6Days of rest6.8
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Granada CF: a home win is rated at 58%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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