All matches

Liepaja — Auda Riga, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

Liepaja
2.0DDDWL
—
Auda Riga
2.6DWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
34%25%40%
LiepajaMarket 2.6034%DrawMarket 3.5025%Auda RigaMarket 2.3540%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liepaja34%38%2.922.60-4.2
XDraw25%29%3.943.50-3.2
2Auda Riga40%43%2.482.35-2.2

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLiepajaAuda RigaCombined
Goals scored1.331.172.50
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners10.59.510.0
Cards2.51.84.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LiepajaAuda Riga

FK Liepāja 34%, FK Auda Riga 40%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

FK Liepāja 34%Draw 25%FK Auda Riga 40%
1st half
33 · 37 · 30
2nd half
25 · 40 · 34

Bookmakers: 2.60 · 3.50 · 2.35

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Liepaja

  • homeDaugavpils0:0
  • awayOgre United2:2
  • awayRFS0:0
  • homeRiga3:2
  • awayAuda Riga0:1

Auda Riga

  • homeRFS1:1
  • homeOgre United1:0
  • awayRiga2:2
  • homeGrobina1:0
  • homeSuper Nova1:1

Head to head

  • 08/25/26Virsliga0:1
  • 05/22/26Virsliga1:3
  • 04/08/26Virsliga1:2
  • 10/20/25Virsliga2:1
  • 07/27/25Virsliga2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1RFS30235271:2274
2Riga31227286:3073
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.