All matches

Groningen — Sparta Rotterdam, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

Groningen
1.9WDDLL
—
Sparta Rotterdam
1.5LLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
56%25%19%
Groningen56%Draw25%Sparta Rotterdam19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Groningen56%1.78—
XDraw25%4.06—
2Sparta Rotterdam19%5.21—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.41

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGroningenSparta RotterdamCombined
Goals scored1.000.501.50
Conceded0.501.672.17
Corners10.014.012.0
Cards0.31.01.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

GroningenSparta Rotterdam

FC Groningen 56%, Sparta Rotterdam 19%. The safest is “FC Groningen or draw” at 79%.

FC Groningen 56%Draw 25%Sparta Rotterdam 19%
1st half
43 · 38 · 20
2nd half
38 · 36 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Groningen

  • homePEC Zwolle3:0
  • awayGo Ahead Eagles1:1
  • homeTwente2:2
  • homeFortuna Sittard2:3
  • awayPSV1:5

Sparta Rotterdam

  • homeHeerenveen0:4
  • awayPSV1:4
  • homePEC Zwolle2:2
  • awayExcelsior1:2
  • homeUtrecht3:3

Head to head

  • 01/31/26Eredivisie0:2
  • 10/19/25Eredivisie0:2
  • 02/02/25Eredivisie0:1
  • 11/09/24Eredivisie1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
7Excelsior732215:911
8Groningen732215:1311
9Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
10Heerenveen723211:99
11NEC Nijmegen722312:138
12Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
13Telstar71245:125
14Cambuur712410:195

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.