Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.33
All matches
FC Tokyo — Sanfrecce Hiroshima, J1 League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
30%26%44%
FC Tokyo30%Draw26%Sanfrecce Hiroshima44%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Tokyo3.34—
XDraw3.80—
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.29—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FC TokyoSanfrecce Hiroshima
FC Tokyo 30%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 44%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC Tokyo 30%Draw 26%Sanfrecce Hiroshima 44%
1st half
23 · 48 · 29
2nd half
27 · 30 · 43
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots on target: Over 6.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFC TokyoSanfrecce HiroshimaCombined
Goals scored2.802.004.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
FC Tokyo- 5 clean sheets in the last 56:0, 0:0, 4:0, 3:0, 1:0
- Unbeaten in 11 matches6:0, 0:0, 4:0, 3:0, 1:0
- Unbeaten at home in 6 matches6:0, 0:0, 3:0, 1:0, 2:0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima- 4 clean sheets in the last 54:0, 0:4, 3:0, 2:0, 1:0
- Most shots on target in the league — 6.9 per match20 teams in the league
- 10 goals in the last 5 matches4:0, 0:4, 3:0, 2:0, 1:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
FC Tokyo
- homeMito HollyHock6:0
- homeKashiwa Reysol0:0
- awayTokyo Verdy4:0
- homeUrawa Reds3:0
- homeNagoya Grampus1:0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- homeShimizu S-Pulse4:0
- awayV-Varen Nagasaki0:4
- homeKyoto Sanga3:0
- awayTokyo Verdy2:0
- awayAvispa Fukuoka1:0
Head to head
- 10/17/25J1 League0:0
- 05/25/25J1 League0:3
- 08/31/24J1 League2:3
- 03/02/24J1 League1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Japan, J1 League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.